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Agricultural Trends
2024 crop prices are expected to be lower in general than last year, with global forecasts indicating a downward trend in commodity prices. Seth Meyer, chief economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, predicts that some of our key crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, will underperform. Canada’s best-performing crop futures investment right now, canola, closed this March at $606 CAD per metric tonne, down from $800 last year. As for soft red winter wheat (SRW), small gains have gratefully been tracked after a huge cancellation of US product on the part of China.
The overall agricultural trend towards lower grain values this year is partly attributed to heightened competition from South American producers. All types of wheat, barley and canola remain the most popular field crops in our province, while small farmers are expected to plant more oats this year, possibly as a forage crop. This decision makes sense, as oat hay is often considered better livestock feed than drought-resistant crops like barley. Harvesting forage oats at the pre-boot or boot stage will make ideal use of this year’s available water sources.
The fraction of farmers planting lentils and field peas this year is expected to increase, despite growing competition from U.S. imports, which are ironically being double exported through Canadian ports to avoid higher shipping costs in the U.S. proper.
Facing a dry growing season once more, Alberta’s farmers are gearing up for a water allocation that’s just half of what they need—8 inches per acre. It’s a heavy burden that is not expected to ease for another few years, after the province implements an array of underground irrigation tunnels. Fortunately, farm equipment costs are expected to level out in 2024, which means that used farm equipment and new showcase machinery should be at their most affordable this spring and summer. That said, the overall high costs of running a successful farming or ranching operation have some in the agricultural industry looking at different ways of doing things.
Jolene MacEachern, Manager of Dalhousie’s Office of Industry Liaison and Innovation, believes that high interest rates and primary costs are the reason that many farmers and ranchers are discussing collaborative arrangements. Collaboration with friends, families and neighbours could involve equipment sharing, hiring out custom work, and farm amalgamation.
“We have to think about … doing things a little differently due to the fact that the price per unit just keeps increasing and the price we receive isn’t keeping pace. You have to be pretty progressive in order to make that work when you’re used to generations of being your own boss,” says MacEachern. “But I think it’s possible.”
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